The Real Estate Bubble
Bubble? Nowhere in sight for U.S. housing market
GREENSBORO, N.C. – Oct. 24, 2017 – U.S. housing markets are expected to remain healthy through at least the end of 2018, with no housing bubble in sight and no projection of home prices falling, according to the Fall 2017 edition of The Housing and Mortgage Market Review (HaMMR), released by Arch Mortgage Insurance Company.
The HaMMR features the Arch MI Risk Index, a statistical model based on recent housing market indicators. The index suggests that over the next two years, the probability of home price declines in America's 401 largest cities averages just 4 percent – an unusually low number.
The trend reflects broad-based favorable fundamentals, such as a tightening job market, relatively low interest rates, a low number of homes for sale and an overall housing shortage.
"People waiting for home prices to fall before buying may want to change their strategy, as the overall housing market is expected to stay strong for the foreseeable future," says Dr. Ralph G. DeFranco, Global Chief Economist, Mortgage Services of Arch Capital Services Inc. "Our research shows no housing bubble is forming in the United States, with prices overall near historic norms compared to incomes."
The HaMMR also finds that some recent concern about U.S. home prices hitting all-time highs is overblown because, after adjusting for inflation, national home prices are still 10 percent below their prior peak.
However, recovery from the housing crash is not universal. While prices have increased in Colorado, Idaho, North Dakota and the Pacific Northwest (Washington and Oregon), areas like New England and energy-extraction states like Alaska, West Virginia and Wyoming are growing more slowly.
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